Saturday, February 21, 2026

Revised toggle competence section for Human-Ai entnaglement paper

 

Toggle Competence and the Critique of Quantitative Fundamentalism

Defining Toggle Competence as Practical Wisdom

The preservation of human agency in AI‑mediated contexts requires what might be termed toggle competence—a learned capacity to fluidly shift between treating AI outputs as meaningful contributions (adopting what Dennett calls the intentional stance that makes collaboration possible) and maintaining critical awareness that these systems operate through pattern‑matching rather than genuine reasoning. This is fundamentally a balancing act: leaning too far toward enchantment risks outsourcing deliberative agency to algorithmic pseudo‑reasons; leaning too far toward demystification makes productive engagement impossible—like attempting to appreciate cinema by analyzing projector mechanics rather than absorbing the narrative.

Toggle competence is not a static equilibrium but an ongoing, context‑sensitive practice requiring constant micro‑adjustments. When exploring interpretive questions—literary analysis, philosophical inquiry, creative brainstorming—practitioners can afford deeper immersion in collaborative meaning‑making with periodic critical pullbacks. When reviewing AI‑generated medical diagnoses, legal briefs, or governance recommendations, sustained vigilance becomes necessary with only tactical acceptance of algorithmic suggestions. The appropriate balance varies not only by domain but by practitioner and situation—much as an “excellent diet” means something radically different for a sumo wrestler than for a competitive sprinter, even though both exemplify nutritional virtue in their respective contexts.

This toggle competence resists quantification precisely because it exemplifies what Michael Polanyi termed tacit knowledge—the kind of practical wisdom one recognizes in action but cannot reduce to explicit rules or metrics. Practitioners know when they are toggling effectively; they can cultivate this capacity through practice and reflection; but they cannot specify an algorithm for when to shift modes or measure their “toggle rate” in any meaningful way across contexts. The appropriate timing depends on situated judgment about what available evidence can and cannot decide, what conceptual frameworks can and cannot capture, and what questions can be meaningfully posed given one’s epistemic position.

The difficulty of operationalizing toggle competence points to a deeper problem pervading contemporary discourse: what might be called quantitative fundamentalism—the assumption that only measurable phenomena merit serious consideration, that all meaningful questions can ultimately be resolved through metrics and optimization. This orientation appears not only in AI governance discussions that demand precise measurements for inherently qualitative capacities like dramatic rehearsal or narrative coherence, but also in scientific discourse where physicists dismiss philosophical inquiry while simultaneously making metaphysical commitments that exceed empirical evidence.

A crucial clarification follows: the critique of quantitative fundamentalism is not a critique of mathematics, measurement, or modeling as such. In ordinary practice, we routinely use quantitative tools without smuggling in an ontological thesis about what is ultimately real—treating formalism as instrument rather than revelation. The pathology emerges when methodological success is silently converted into metaphysical authority: when “what we can measure” becomes “what there is,” and when the inability to operationalize a phenomenon is treated as evidence of its non‑being rather than as a limit of the current investigative frame.

This is also why toggle competence cannot itself be reduced to a metric without self‑contradiction. It includes the capacity to recognize when quantification is appropriately sovereign (because the question is genuinely quantitative) and when the very demand for quantification constitutes a category mistake—an attempt to force qualitative or interpretive problems to “confess” in a register that cannot, in principle, contain them.

Quantifiable vs. Interpretive Is Not Objective vs. Subjective

Here a distinction sharpened in everyday disputes about “data‑driven” wisdom‑of‑crowds claims becomes essential: quantifiable vs. interpretive is not the same as objective vs. subjective. Many domains that matter most to collective life—criminal sentencing, psychiatric diagnosis, constitutional law, historical evaluation, electoral judgment—have no single discrete right answer that can be scored as one would score a multiple‑choice test, yet they are not thereby arbitrary or epistemically weightless.

Everyday practice already presupposes this. Before there were any theories of wavelengths or optics, people could reliably say “turn right at the red sign two blocks ahead” and be understood; these were factual assertions embedded in shared practices, not mystical projections. Even in physics, as Polanyi emphasized, the scientist ultimately must trust that she has correctly read notch 2 rather than notch 5, or distinguished the red line from the blue line on a graph; one cannot keep appealing to equations to vindicate perception, because equations themselves must be seen and interpreted by someone whose perception we eventually simply trust. Perception, in this sense, is not an embarrassing residue of “subjectivity” but the tacit, intersubjective floor without which our most precise sciences cannot get off the ground at all.

The core mistake of quantitative fundamentalism is to collapse four distinctions into one: measurable vs. non‑measurable; public vs. private; reliable vs. unreliable; objective vs. subjective. Once this conflation is in place, anything non‑quantifiable is easily dismissed as “merely subjective,” and “subjective” is silently equated with “idiosyncratic and error‑prone,” while quantitative outputs are treated as inherently more objective and real. But there are non‑quantifiable yet public and checkable domains—consider historians’ comparative assessments of political leaders, legal reasoning about proportional sentence ranges, or psychiatric debates over evolving diagnostic criteria—that are neither reducible to metrics nor equivalent to unanchored personal preference. They involve comparative reason‑giving under ambiguity, where some positions are more reasonable, better supported, or more coherent with the evidence and with other commitments, even though no single scalar score settles the matter.

This has direct implications for contemporary enthusiasm about the “wisdom of crowds” and “data‑driven” decision‑making. Classic demonstrations—Galton’s ox‑weight estimates, certain prediction markets, game‑show multiple‑choice crowds—work under two conditions: (1) there is a discrete, evaluable right answer; and (2) we have a clear metric of accuracy. When one moves from those contexts to elections (“who is best suited to govern?”), judicial sentencing, or “best candidate” questions more generally, the structure changes: there is no single correct answer in the oxide‑sense, no uncontroversial metric for “best,” and no way to define error the way one defines mis‑guessing an ox’s weight. To treat these questions as if they were of the same kind—because votes produce numbers or because large datasets enable sophisticated aggregation—is precisely to enact quantitative fundamentalism: where quantification fails, the imported frame fails with it.

A parallel point applies to semantics itself. Attempts to insist that a term is meaningful only if it admits of a fixed, non‑circular, metric definition (the old verificationist or non‑cognitivist impulse) would, if applied consistently, declare vast swathes of ordinary language and institutional vocabulary—justice, harm, common good, love, art—“meaningless.” That reductio reveals not the emptiness of these concepts but the overreach of the metric demand. Meaning in these domains consists not in a single pinpoint on a semantic bullseye but in the ability to navigate a structured interpretive space: to broaden terms when cooperation and institutional flexibility require it, and to narrow them when action or clarity demands.

We might think of this as a kind of “breathing” in our conceptual life. Sometimes we broaden—using intentionally open‑textured terms like “general welfare” or “due process” so that constitutional or legal frameworks can adapt to unforeseen circumstances. Sometimes we narrow—specifying “due process” through habeas corpus, notice‑and‑hearing requirements, exclusionary rules. There is no algorithm that tells us, ex ante, when to broaden and when to narrow without reinstating quantitative fundamentalism at a meta‑level; it is precisely here that tacit, situated judgment must guide the management of interpretive space. Toggle competence, on this picture, is as much about knowing when to move between narrow and broad interpretive frames as it is about toggling between empirical and philosophical modes of inquiry.

With this clarified, we can now examine how quantitative fundamentalism manifests in a supposedly “hardest” domain—contemporary physics—and what successful toggling looks like in contrast.

Toggle Failure in Physics: The Case of Quantitative Fundamentalism

Physicist Lawrence Krauss provides an instructive example of this failure to toggle between empirical and interpretive modes. In his 2012 book A Universe from Nothing: Why There Is Something Rather Than Nothing, Krauss explicitly dismisses philosophy as having “no contribution to make” to questions about cosmic origins. He argues that physics can now explain how universes emerge from “nothing”—by which he means quantum vacuum states with fluctuating fields governed by physical laws.

When philosopher David Albert reviewed the book in The New York Times, pointing out that quantum vacuums are emphatically not metaphysical nothingness, Krauss dismissed the critique as mere semantic quibbling. But Albert’s point was precisely about the toggle failure: Krauss was working in empirical mode (describing the physics of vacuum states) while making claims that require interpretive mode (addressing the metaphysical question of why physical laws exist at all). The question “Why is there something rather than nothing?” asks about the ontological status of existence itself, including the existence of quantum fields and physical laws. Answering this question by describing processes within an already‑existing physical framework simply relocates rather than resolves the philosophical puzzle.

Krauss’s toggle failure becomes explicit in his treatment of what counts as legitimate inquiry. He repeatedly asserts that philosophical questions lacking empirical answers are meaningless or uninteresting—a quintessentially philosophical claim about the nature of meaningful inquiry that cannot itself be empirically tested. His position exemplifies quantitative fundamentalism: the assumption that because physics successfully employs mathematical rigor and empirical testing, all meaningful questions must be answerable through these methods.

Stephen Hawking demonstrated a similar pattern in The Grand Design (2010), opening with the declaration that “philosophy is dead” because it “has not kept up with modern developments in science, especially physics.” Yet the book immediately proceeds to defend model‑dependent realism—a philosophical position about the nature of scientific knowledge—and makes claims about the unreality of history before observation that depend entirely on interpretive choices about how to understand quantum mechanics. Hawking rejects philosophy while doing philosophy, unable to recognize when his discourse has shifted from empirical physics (where his expertise is unquestionable) to metaphysical speculation (where philosophical analysis becomes essential).

What makes this failure so recurrent is that physicalism often presents itself as the absence of metaphysics, when in fact it begins with metaphysical axioms of its own—e.g., that all is “matter and energy”—whose boundary conditions are rarely made explicit. Historically, the content of “the physical” has been repeatedly revised: the graveyard of ontologies is real (ether disappears; the furniture of the world is re‑described), and even our best frameworks remain unreconciled in key places (quantum mechanics and relativity). Under these conditions, “physical” can function less like a stable criterion and more like a standing authorization to reclassify anomalies as “physical” whenever the mathematics or the research program demands it.

Dark matter is useful here not as a conclusion but as a diagnostic. One live possibility is that we are “detecting” something real but not yet characterizable; another is that the anomaly is a measure of ignorance or a signal of theory failure (for example, in the gravitational framework). The toggle failure is to treat the label “matter” as a metaphysical solvent that dissolves the problem in advance—to subsume the anomaly under “the physical” before we can even say what it would mean for the anomaly to count against the operative categories. This is precisely the sort of unmarked shift—empirical inquiry sliding into ontological closure—that the concept of quantitative fundamentalism is designed to expose.

Both examples reveal the structure of quantitative fundamentalism’s toggle failure. These physicists possess extraordinary competence in mathematical formalism and empirical investigation. Their failure lies not in technical understanding but in recognizing when their mode of inquiry has reached its legitimate boundaries. They cannot toggle from empirical/quantitative mode (appropriate for physics) to interpretive/philosophical mode (necessary for questions about the ontological status of physical theories themselves) because they do not acknowledge the latter as a legitimate epistemic domain.

The consequences extend beyond individual confusion. When prominent scientists dismiss philosophical inquiry while making philosophical claims, they model toggle failure for broader audiences—suggesting that quantitative rigor alone suffices for all meaningful questions, that interpretive frameworks are merely subjective preferences rather than essential tools for navigating domains where empirical evidence underdetermines conclusions.

Successful Toggling: Feynman’s Epistemic Humility

Richard Feynman provides a striking counter‑example of successful toggle competence in precisely the domain where Krauss and Hawking falter. Feynman made foundational contributions to quantum electrodynamics, work that required extraordinary mathematical sophistication and rigorous empirical grounding. Yet he maintained consistent epistemic humility about interpretive questions that exceeded available evidence.

Feynman famously remarked, “I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics,” and advised, “I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.” This was not anti‑intellectual defeatism but clear‑eyed recognition of the limits of current inquiry. Feynman worked rigorously with quantum mechanical formalism—developing path integrals, contributing to the Standard Model, calculating predictions with extraordinary precision. He remained firmly in quantitative/empirical mode for these technical achievements.

Yet when asked about what quantum mechanics means—whether the wave function represents objective reality, whether measurement collapses genuinely occur, whether hidden variables might restore determinism—Feynman toggled to interpretive/agnostic mode. He acknowledged that these questions, while fascinating, exceeded what the mathematical formalism and experimental evidence could decide. Different interpretations (Copenhagen, Many‑Worlds, Pilot Wave) make identical empirical predictions; choosing among them requires philosophical commitments about ontological parsimony, the nature of probability, and what counts as explanation—commitments that cannot be resolved through further calculation or measurement.

This posture is best described as weak metaphysical agnosticism: a refusal to treat any currently available ontology as authoritative, while leaving open—in principle—the possibility that better future theorizing (conceptual and empirical) could warrant stronger metaphysical commitments. Weak agnosticism is not the same as strong anti‑realism; it does not infer from “we lack a mirror of nature” that “no mirror is possible.” On the contrary, the strong anti‑realist negation invites a performative paradox: to know that no “mirror” can exist in any form would seemingly require exactly the kind of standpoint—comparison to reality “in itself”—that the anti‑realist declares unavailable.

Feynman’s epistemic humility exemplifies successful toggle competence because it recognizes the legitimate boundaries of different modes of inquiry. In quantitative/empirical mode, quantum mechanics is spectacularly successful—its predictions match experimental results to extraordinary precision. In interpretive/philosophical mode, questions about what the theory represents remain genuinely open, requiring suspended judgment rather than premature closure through philosophical preference masquerading as scientific conclusion.

This capacity for productive uncertainty—for dwelling in questions without rushing to answers—represents precisely the toggle competence that quantitative fundamentalism lacks. Feynman could shift fluidly between rigorous technical work (demanding mathematical precision and empirical rigor) and philosophical modesty (acknowledging that some questions exceed current methods’ reach). He neither dismissed interpretive questions as meaningless (Krauss’s error) nor treated them as decidable through technical virtuosity alone (the temptation of mathematical Platonism).

Implications for AI Governance and Human Agency

These examples from physics illuminate why toggle competence proves essential for responsible AI interaction and why it resists the quantification that algorithmic systems privilege. The structure of the challenge remains consistent across domains: practitioners must learn when to immerse themselves in productive collaboration (whether with quantum formalism or AI outputs) and when to step back into critical reflection about what that collaboration can and cannot achieve.

In AI contexts, toggle competence operates through the dynamic management of what this framework has termed the user’s illusion—the tendency to treat AI outputs as intentional, reasoned, and meaningful. As discussed earlier, this illusion is not mere pathology but a precondition for productive engagement. Users cannot interact effectively with AI systems while constantly reminding themselves of the underlying mechanics; doing so would be like watching a film while obsessing over projector mechanisms. The intentional stance enables collaborative flow, allowing users to build on AI‑generated suggestions, explore alternative framings, and develop ideas through iterative exchange.

Yet uncritical immersion in the intentional stance leads to the “labor‑saving” mode of interaction where users treat AI outputs as genuine deliberation rather than sophisticated simulation—outsourcing judgment to algorithmic optimization while retaining only the subjective experience of choice. Toggle competence requires recognizing when to pull back from immersive collaboration into critical awareness that the “space of pseudo‑reasons” differs fundamentally from genuine reason‑giving, that pattern‑matching lacks intentionality despite producing linguistically fluent outputs.

The parallel to Feynman’s approach becomes clear. Just as Feynman worked productively with quantum formalism while maintaining philosophical agnosticism about ontological interpretation, AI users must engage productively with algorithmic outputs while maintaining awareness of their non‑sentient, optimization‑driven nature. Just as Krauss’s toggle failure led him to conflate empirical physics with metaphysical resolution, AI users who lose toggle competence conflate statistically plausible outputs with genuine understanding, convenience with wisdom, optimization with deliberation.

The connection to dramatic rehearsal proves particularly significant. Dewey’s concept captures the distinctively human capacity for imaginative exploration of possible actions and consequences before commitment—a process involving the whole person, not just analytical cognition, and inherently social in its consideration of others’ responses. AI deployment often undermines conditions necessary for genuine dramatic rehearsal: algorithmic solutions’ speed and apparent convenience can short‑circuit deliberative processes, encouraging acceptance of outputs without fully exploring their implications. The opacity of AI systems makes it difficult to imagine meaningfully what delegation involves. As systems become more sophisticated at predicting preferences, they may reduce the felt need for dramatic rehearsal by providing solutions that appear obviously optimal.

Toggle competence becomes the mechanism for preserving dramatic rehearsal in AI‑mediated contexts. By maintaining capacity to shift from immersive collaboration to critical reflection, users can catch themselves before accepting algorithmic outputs that bypass genuine deliberation. The toggle moment—pulling back to ask “What am I outsourcing here? What understanding am I losing? What alternatives am I foreclosing?”—creates space for the imaginative exploration that dramatic rehearsal requires.

This also clarifies why toggle competence resists the metrics‑based assessment that much AI governance discourse demands. One cannot quantify “toggle frequency” in meaningful cross‑context ways because what counts as appropriate toggling varies by domain, practitioner, and situation. A “redirect” in one interaction might be a “misunderstanding” in another; coding such moments requires interpretive judgment that is itself path‑dependent and context‑sensitive. More fundamentally, toggle competence operates at a phenomenological level that may be accessible to practitioners themselves but not reliably detectable through behavioral analysis.

The quantitative fundamentalism critique thus circles back to illuminate the AI governance challenge. Just as Krauss and Hawking could not recognize philosophical questions as legitimate because their epistemology privileged only empirically testable claims, AI governance frameworks that demand metrics for all meaningful capacities risk optimizing what can be measured while neglecting what matters most. Toggle competence, dramatic rehearsal quality, narrative coherence, and the capacity for genuine reason‑giving are real capacities essential to human flourishing, even if they resist the quantification that algorithmic systems privilege.

A mature framework must embrace complementary modes of knowledge—quantitative where appropriate, interpretive where necessary, and attentive to tacit dimensions that resist explicit articulation. This methodological pluralism does not reject measurement but recognizes its limits, acknowledging that some of the most crucial capacities for preserving human agency in AI‑mediated contexts cannot be reduced to the metrics that computational systems can process. Toggle competence itself exemplifies this insight: it is the learned capacity to recognize when measurement suffices and when situated judgment must transcend available quantification—making it simultaneously essential for AI governance and irreducible to the technical frameworks such governance often privileges.

 

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Sum para for sep. paper on interpretive space: A spinoff for sep. paper


Toggle competence names a practical form of wisdom needed whenever we work at the boundary between quantitative and interpretive domains. It is the learned capacity to shift fluidly between immersive engagement with powerful formal or computational systems and critical reflection on what those systems can and cannot do. In semantics and interpretation, this means recognizing that many of our most important concepts—justice, harm, common good, even ordinary color talk—do not admit of a single, metric “bullseye” definition, yet are neither arbitrary nor merely private. They function instead as structured interpretive spaces: we broaden them when we need big‑tent cooperation or institutional flexibility, and narrow them when action, adjudication, or precise coordination requires sharper edges. No algorithm can pre‑decide when to broaden or narrow without reinstating, at a higher level, the very quantitative fundamentalism the view resists.

The spin‑off for a theory of interpretation is that meaning is better thought of as navigability within such spaces than as successful aim at a unique point. Interpretive competence involves managing this “breathing” of concepts—knowing when to tolerate ambiguity as productive and when to discipline it as obfuscating, when to demand more precise criteria and when doing so would be a category mistake. Toggle competence, in this setting, is the reflective awareness that some questions genuinely are suited to metric resolution, while others remain irreducibly interpretive yet still objective in the sense of being publicly arguable, evidence‑responsive, and better or worse justified. It is precisely this non‑algorithmic sense of when to stay with formalism and when to lean on tacit, situated judgment that any serious semantics or hermeneutics will have to account for, especially under conditions where computational systems tempt us to treat all meaning as if it were ultimately quantifiable.

 

Friday, February 20, 2026

The Surge That Didn’t End: Witnesses to an Unfinished Occupation

 

A month ago in Minneapolis, a children’s performer named Stella Carlson stayed when others ran. She filmed federal agents firing ten shots into the body of a 37‑year‑old U.S. citizen, Alex Pretti, who was not suspected of any crime and was never charged with anything.

In a later CNN interview, Carlson’s voice shook as she described feeling utterly abandoned: “nobody’s here for us… nobody’s going to help us… so it broke down to: then it’s us. We only have each other.” Yet she still insisted she believed Minnesota officials “want to protect us” and were trying to help, even if their hands were tied by the Trump administration.

Those are the people Democrats now celebrate as “brave protesters” who, in Sen. Klobuchar’s words, “stood up” and “stared down” ICE. The problem is that the version of reality being told about them is no longer compatible with what is still happening on the ground.


The day the surge “ended”

On February 12, Trump’s border czar Tom Homan stepped to a podium in Minneapolis and announced that Operation Metro Surge was ending. In the same breath, he warned that “forcibly assaulting, resisting, opposing, impeding, intimidating or interfering with a federal law enforcement officer is a crime,” and said the administration would not tolerate “agitators who are just causing havoc.”

Democratic leaders immediately accepted his premise. Senator Amy Klobuchar declared that “ICE is getting out of Minnesota,” crediting “Minnesotans who stood strong and stared them down.” Attorney General Keith Ellison issued an official statement: “Make no mistake: the people of Minnesota ended Operation Metro Surge… this is a win for Minnesota,” praising “voices, dedication to peaceful protest, documenting abuses, and commitment to providing for each other” as the decisive force. Governor Tim Walz, who days earlier had warned of a potential “Fort Sumter moment” and called the surge an “armed force” attacking his constituents, shifted into talk of “drawdown in days” and “healing” without demanding publicly verifiable proof that thousands of agents had actually left.

In theory this is the moment when an opposition insists on receipts: How many agents are still here? Which hotels have emptied out? How many flights have departed and where? Instead, both the administration and the state’s top Democrats agreed to treat “ending” as a story beat, not a claim to be tested.


What small outlets kept seeing

If you want to know whether ICE actually left, you have to leave the headline outlets and follow the people who never stopped watching.

Bring Me The News, a small Minnesota site, ran a February 16 live blog whose headline and lede kept the surge in the present tense: “we’re following Monday’s developments from the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operation in Minnesota.” It explicitly promised to “continue to provide daily updates until the change is confirmed on the ground,” and then logged fresh raids and arrests in Burnsville, Chaska, Rochester, and Columbia Heights after Homan’s announcement. ICEOut and allied volunteers kept posting maps and alerts: people grabbed at bus stops, construction sites, and workplaces, a climate of fear local farmers described as ongoing rather than resolved.

Protesters’ own language matched that reality. Minnesota AFL‑CIO and Indivisible’s “Day Out for Democracy” march on February 16 did not sound like a victory lap; their call was for “ICE out of Minnesota immediately” and “an end to ICE’s occupation.” ICE OUT and MIRAC organizers were blunt: “Operation Metro Surge is NOT over!! We continue to stand…,” “ICE OUT NOW,” “no compromise.” In one reel from that day, Marcia Howard faces a crowd and says, “DAY OUT FOR DEMOCRACY / ICE OUT NOW… You ever hear of a Minnesota goodbye?… It might be a long while… We demand ICE OUT NOW with NO COMPROMISE. We call on our leaders from City Hall to the Governor’s Office to stand with the people.”

None of this is the language of people who believe the surge has ended. It is the language of people who believe they are living under an ongoing occupation that their own side refuses to acknowledge.

Sahan Journal, a nonprofit focused on immigrant communities, put the contradiction into a headline: “Operation Metro Surge hasn’t ended. It’s expanded to the suburbs.” Its February 19 report describes what happened after the cameras left downtown. Observers in Columbia Heights and Fridley say convoys and “abductions” continued “those first couple days” after the announcement; what changed was that agents shifted into “really old, beat up garbage cars,” unmarked minivans, plain clothes, and smaller teams. In Eden Prairie, one volunteer says, “they’re there every single day”—unmarked vehicles angle themselves around children’s bus stops for hours, stage outside apartments, parks, and small businesses. Union hotel workers and community monitors report ICE still lodged in multiple hotels around the metro, with 20 or more ICE vehicles routinely parked in suburban hotel lots.

State lawmakers from those districts describe the same thing: drones and helicopters, unmarked cars tailing them and local observers, residents still too afraid to leave their homes. Representative Alex Falconer recounts an unmarked vehicle flashing lights and following him toward the Capitol; Senator Erin Maye Quade calls the damage “generational” and says “Operation Metro Surge has morphed into something else,” not ended.

None of this appears in the politicians’ victory posts. None of it has forced them to revise their story.


Elsewhere: the same operation, different zip codes

Minnesota is not unique. In Los Angeles, LAist reports that immigration raids and mass arrests have continued for months, with DHS itself boasting that more than 10,000 people have been detained in the region since June. A Koreatown church that used to serve 500–600 people in a weekly food distribution now sees maybe 350; some weeks they cut the line early “because the ICE agents were around here,” as families stay home rather than risk groceries or school.

On Long Island, the East End Beacon describes federal agents in camouflage labeled “Police,” “HSI,” and “ERO” detaining a man in the parking lot of a family courthouse in Riverhead, while one agent stands with pepper spray out and residents film in fear. Locals describe people “abducted” off streets and coffee shops, and a woman in Patchogue arrested simply for filming a raid and released only because local police recognized her. An immigrant‑rights group, OLA (Organización Latino Americana of Eastern Long Island), begs the town board for a basic resolution requiring masked agents to identify themselves and to coordinate with local police; the board sits through three hours of other business and says nothing.

In Chatham County, Georgia, The Current GA documents roving patrols on a one‑mile stretch of road near a K‑8 school, beginning months before a teacher’s death. Unmarked SUVs with grille lights box in drivers “who appear to be Latino,” masked agents surround the car, demand ID without identifying themselves, issue no citations, and leave. A U.S. citizen and two Central American legal residents recount being stopped this way multiple times—“driving while Hispanic”—long before February 16, when ICE tried to stop an undocumented man with a prior deportation order, he fled, and his truck struck and killed special‑education teacher Linda Davis on her way to school. National outlets cover Davis as a discrete tragedy—a “man fleeing ICE” killed a beloved educator—without integrating the months of local reporting on roving patrols and racial profiling that made such an outcome likely.

The pattern is the same: small, often precarious outlets document an ongoing interior operation and its abuses; large platforms treat what they see as isolated accidents, backstory for polls, or remnants of a crisis that is already over.


Local journalists and observers under fire

None of this is without cost. LA Public Press’s editor would later describe covering immigration enforcement in her city under Trump as work where “your local reporter needs the same protection as a war correspondent.” Freelancers were hit by rubber bullets; one was struck in the face. A reporter’s immigrant mother was followed from her hospital job and stopped by immigration agents near her home. The International Women’s Media Foundation and Committee to Protect Journalists report that in 2025 at least 32 journalist detentions and arrests in the United States occurred while covering immigration actions or protests, most ending without charges but not without damage: assaults, kettling, weapons drawn, cameras broken.

When local reporters in Denver and San Jose did what local reporters are supposed to do—follow unmarked vehicles and report on raids—Homan and other officials went on Fox News to blame “media leaks” for low arrest numbers and threatened to restrict access. The new FCC chair opened an investigation into a California radio station that described undercover ICE operations on air, raising the prospect that “reporting in the public interest” could itself be treated as a regulatory violation. As one war correspondent put it, this is “an agency trying to silence unembedded reporting.”

So the information we do have exists because local journalists, volunteers, and faith leaders have accepted real personal risk to collect it. The hard part—evidence gathering—is not what’s missing.


The blink—and what it reveals

In theory, this is exactly what opposition parties, the “fourth estate,” and adversarial outlets are for: to take those fragments of dangerous, high‑value local reporting and stitch them into a binding national reality. In practice, the opposite has happened.

Within days of warning about “Fort Sumter” and describing Metro Surge as an occupation, Walz was talking about drawdown and “healing.” Klobuchar rushed to proclaim that “ICE is getting out of Minnesota,” invited people to refill hotel rooms, and appeared on national shows in pure victory and autopsy mode. Frey praised “brave protesters” and talked about recovery, while admitting he had no data on flights, hotel departures, or agent counts. Protesters kept chanting “ICE OUT NOW” and insisting “Operation Metro Surge is not over,” but their own leaders chose to narrate a win instead.

Litigation continues. The ACLU and ACLU of Minnesota filed Tincher v. Noem in January to challenge suspicionless stops, racial profiling, and retaliation against observers, amended their complaint in mid‑February to add journalists and more than 80 new incidents, and have brought cases elsewhere against NSPM‑7 and related tactics. Yet when Judge Katherine Menendez, a Biden appointee, ruled on Minnesota’s bid to rein in Metro Surge, she described “racial profiling, excessive use of force, and other harmful actions,” called the harms “profound and even heartbreaking,” and still declined to halt the operation invoking deference to federal authority and the likelihood of appellate reversal. The ACLU’s own February statements on Homan’s announcement warn of “hollow words” and vow to monitor, but also adopt “ending” as the operative frame, focusing on rebuilding and accountability rather than insisting on public, real‑time verification of drawdown.

Adversarial media have followed a similar arc. In January, outlets like The Intercept and WIRED did genuine work: exposing a secret “domestic terrorist” list that sweeps in antifascist and climate activists, mapping more than 150 new ICE offices and $38.3 billion in detention warehouses and “mega‑facilities,” documenting Track‑2 build‑out and database tie‑ins. By mid‑February, those same brands had turned back to structural essays, polls, and election coverage. With a few exceptions, they are not integrating the new Sahan, LAist, East End Beacon, Current GA, ICEOut, or Bring Me The News evidence into a live national narrative about ongoing enforcement.

Even NPR’s February 18 story on Minneapolis observers—detailing how ICE now pulls guns on people like “Jess,” smashes car windows, and detains observers for eight hours for following at a distance—quietly contradicts the “protesters won / surge ended” story it previously took for granted, but never pulls those threads together. It shows that abuses in Minnesota are “increasing,” not fading, and that the people credited with “ending the surge” are now being told their mere presence is a crime. The narrative does not adjust. At that point the United States looks less like a democracy “under threat” and more like a competitive authoritarian, personalist regime where elections continue but meaningful opposition and truthful narration have largely been absorbed.

At the same time, Trump’s second term has moved rapidly toward open personalism. His name and face now hang over the Department of Justice, the U.S. Institute of Peace, national park passes, and even proposed coins and stadiums; scholars like Steven Levitsky and Barbara Walter now openly describe the United States as a competitive authoritarian or electoral autocracy rather than a full democracy. Bondi’s January 24 letter to Walz explicitly tied any “ending” of Metro Surge to turning over Minnesota’s voter rolls and welfare data, scrapping sanctuary policies, and opening local jails to ICE—a fusion of immigration enforcement, election control, and retributive justice that DOJ then sealed with a literal Trump banner on its headquarters.

Against that backdrop, what happened in Minnesota this month is not just a local failure. When a regime can kill citizens on camera, call them “terrorists” without evidence, refuse to share the evidence it does have, expand the agencies involved, and then offer an “ending” story that both parties and much of the press gratefully adopt while the operations continue elsewhere, it is hard to see how “still a democracy under threat” remains the right description.

That is why I find myself writing this not as an advocate but as a witness. In principle, institutions could still change course, but my considered judgment—as a social theorist and as a person trying to tell the truth in real time—is that the opposition we have has already buckled and chosen the “protesters won” story over the people it claims to represent. The information exists. Local journalists, volunteers, and ordinary people like Stella Carlson have done their part, at real personal cost. What is missing is any institutional opposition with sufficient reach and will to treat that information as binding reality once it conflicts with a comforting story. I hope I am wrong about how far gone the system already is. But given the record, silence feels less like caution and more like complicity.

                              ***

Postscript: 

 

In the week since Tom Homan first declared the surge “over,” the official numbers have only gotten more surreal. On February 19, he told CNN there are “probably…2,000” agents still in Minnesota but insisted the “immigration surge” is over and that the state will be back to a “regular footprint” of 150 within a week. The anchor did not ask how 2,000 counts as anything but surge‑level presence, or how this squares with his own claim five days earlier that “well over a thousand” of 3,000 had already left and “hundreds more” were leaving in the next few days. On February 18—between those two sets of numbers—NPR reported that intimidation and detention of legal observers in Minneapolis are increasing, not fading, with windows smashed, guns drawn, and observers held for eight hours at the Whipple building. On February 20, Representatives Ilhan Omar and Angie Craig, forced by a Noem‑imposed seven‑day rule to book their oversight visit more than a week in advance, were shown an emptied and freshly scrubbed Whipple facility and told there are now “fewer than 500” agents in Minnesota, that only about 20 people a day are being picked up, and that no observers have been held there in recent days. They called the emptiness “convenient,” but publicly accepted the 500‑agent figure and did not press the obvious questions about who had been moved out hours before, or how any of this fits with the continuing reports of harassment and suburban raids. Taken together, those three days capture the new normal: incompatible numbers and narratives offered in rapid succession, and a political and media class—including Democrats—willing to accept each in turn without forcing them to add up, while the largest interior ICE deployment in the country quietly continues in Minnesota and other cities slip under the same gun out of frame. 


Selected sources (with links)

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Operation Metro Surge Didn't End -- It Just Went Dark



For about a month, Operation Metro Surge turned Minneapolis–St. Paul into the most closely watched domestic story in the United States. Masked federal agents fanned out through neighborhoods, schools closed, families hid indoors, and at least two U.S. citizens—Renée Good and Alex Pretti—were killed by federal immigration officers. Evidence in their cases was withheld from state investigators, and thousands of people, including citizens, were swept up and disappeared into a rotating archipelago of detention sites. Then, on February 12, Trump’s border czar Tom Homan announced that Metro Surge was ending.

Since that day, almost everything the public thinks it knows about the “end” of the operation comes from Homan’s mouth and from politicians’ victory laps. Almost nothing comes from verifiable reporting on the ground.

I. The Spectacle

For weeks, the country watched an unprecedented domestic deployment of ICE and related federal forces into Minnesota’s largest cities. The numbers and images were staggering:
  • At its peak, roughly 3,000 federal immigration officers operated in the state—many masked, often unidentifiable, moving through residential neighborhoods and around schools.
  • At least two citizens, Renée Good and Alex Pretti, were killed by these agents; another person died in federal custody.
  • Minnesota’s attorney general, Keith Ellison, testified that his office had been denied basic evidence in the Good and Pretti cases: the weapon, shell casings, even access to a victim’s car. State investigators were told, in effect, to accept federal word on faith.
  • Residents described people being grabbed off streets and out of vehicles, then vanished into far-flung detention centers before lawyers or family could locate them. Some estimates put the number of those swept up at well over 4,000.
This was not “routine immigration enforcement.” It looked and felt like an occupation: masked agents, opaque chains of custody, a cloud of terror that drove families underground and forced neighbors to improvise support networks just to get food and basic supplies to those too afraid to leave their homes.

For about a month, media volume matched the stakes. Minnesota dominated domestic coverage; international outlets in Europe ran segments and explainers. The spectacle was impossible to ignore.

II. The Pivot

On February 12, the narrative changed with a single statement.

Tom Homan announced that Operation Metro Surge was ending. He did not present data, manifests, or third-party confirmation. He simply stated that the operation was over, that hundreds of officers would leave, and that Minnesota would see a return to an “original footprint” of 80–150 agents.

In the following days, he appeared on major Sunday shows. On CBS’s Face the Nation, he claimed that “well over 1,000 people” had already been “removed,” and that several hundred more would leave imminently. The phrasing was vague: did “people” mean federal agents, deported migrants, arrestees transferred out of state, or some combination? He did not clarify. He also listed so many carve-outs—rapid-response teams, church protection units, fraud investigators, jail liaisons—that the promised return to a small footprint became mathematically and operationally incoherent.

Still, that was enough. Within a day, most major outlets were reporting that Metro Surge was “ending,” “over,” or “winding down.” Very few readers would have realized that the only basis for those claims was a set of uncorroborated assertions by Tom Homan—the border czar brought in as the 'grown up' to replace the more volatile CBP commander, Gregory Bovino, whose aggressive rhetoric had become 'bad optics,' effectively rebranding rather than ending the operation.

What followed, almost immediately, were two mutually incompatible victory narratives.

III. Two Potemkin Victories

On the Republican side, the line was simple: the surge worked.

In this telling, Minnesota had been forced into “unprecedented cooperation.” Homan and allies suggested that the state had finally come around on enforcing federal immigration law and that the operation’s success justified similar surges in other “sanctuary” jurisdictions. The message to other states was clear: resist and you will get Minneapolis.

On the mainstream Democratic and liberal side, an apparently opposite story took hold just as quickly: activists had won.

Television segments and op-eds framed the announced ending as a civil-rights-style victory. Commentators praised Minnesota’s protesters, legal observers, and Senator Amy Klobachur, On X, thanked activists for “standing up” and “staring down” federal power. The mayor of Minneapolis, appearing on The Daily Show, credited community resistance, detailed the economic damage, and then pivoted to a tourism pitch: book a flight, stay in a hotel, come enjoy a newly peaceful city. The governor thanked activists in a jogging-shorts video posted on X,  and urged people to get outside and enjoy the weather.These narratives contradict each other. Either Minnesota made real concessions in exchange for the surge’s end, as Homan claimed, or it did not, as state officials insisted. Either the operation ended because it succeeded on federal terms, or it ended because it failed in the face of local resistance. They cannot both be true

Yet both parties had strong incentives to maintain their Potemkin versions. Republicans needed a success story to justify the surge model and to warn other states. Democrats needed a story of activist triumph to offer their base some sense of agency and to avoid admitting how thoroughly they had been outflanked on the ground.

In the middle sat Minnesotans who had actually lived through the occupation—many of whom said nothing fundamental had changed.

IV. The Black Hole

The most telling fact about Metro Surge after February 12 is not what has been reported but what hasn’t

In the days following Homan’s announcement, one would expect a basic set of questions to be answered by reporters:
  • How many federal agents have actually left Minnesota?
  • What is the visible presence of ICE and related units on Minneapolis and St. Paul streets now?
  • Are families who spent weeks hiding indoors now venturing out?
  • Have arrests, raids, and harassment truly stopped, or merely slowed?
Instead, coverage evaporated.

National outlets that had saturated the surge itself sent no one back for “after” shots. There were no datelined dispatches from hotel lobbies or airport gates, no counts of departing convoys, no interviews with residents describing a tangible shift in day-to-day life. Local TV and print ran a handful of desk-written “drawdown” stories that simply repeated Homan’s numbers and administration talking points.

Investigative outlets that might have been expected to dig deeper remained silent. Five days after the supposed end of one of the most aggressive domestic deployments in recent U.S. history, there were no major investigative pieces testing the official claims. The journalists who did the hard work of documenting abuses during the surge did not, or could not, deliver a public audit of its conclusion.

On social media, the collapse was even more dramatic. A story that had been a top trending topic for weeks essentially disappeared. Posts from Minnesota residents saying “I still see them out my window” or sharing new videos of harassment drew a few dozen views. Discussions about the surge mutated almost entirely into abstract talk about funding levels and congressional negotiations. Almost nobody seemed interested in the basic question: Did the agents actually leave?

It is hard not to describe that as an information black hole. The closest recent parallel, in terms of a story that went from all-consuming to opaque, is the Nord Stream sabotage: immense initial attention, followed by years of unresolved core questions and a vacuum filled mostly by speculation. In Minnesota, the energy dissipated even faster.

V. What Didn’t End

While the “ending” of Metro Surge dominates the political and media narratives, the underlying architecture that made it possible is still expanding.
  • A large federal presence remains in Minnesota. Even after a reported withdrawal of 700 officers earlier in February, estimates still put roughly 2,000 federal immigration agents in the state. Officials talk of “residual” security forces, rapid-response teams, and specialized units that will stay in place indefinitely. Local observers continue to report ICE activity at levels similar to during the surge, including harassment of legal observers and residents.
  • ICE and DHS are quietly building out a national grid. Leaked documents and reporting show more than a hundred new leases and expansions for ICE offices and warehouse-style facilities in or near major urban areas, including proximity to schools, hospitals, and government service centers. The intent is clear: a permanent, geographically distributed infrastructure capable of rapid surge into any city, with 150+ new locations secured through multi-year leases.
  • Detention capacity is increasing rapidly. ICE’s detained population has reached record highs, and planned capacity is moving toward six figures with $38.3 billion allocated for 92,600 beds operational by November 2026—the midterm election month. These are not temporary overflow facilities; they are long-term carceral investments.
  • Data collection and targeting are accelerating. At the same time that surges have rolled through cities, the federal government has pressed states to turn over complete voter rolls and welfare data (encompassing 40+ million records from 12 states), and has integrated facial recognition and other technologies into immigration and “public safety” operations. The same apparatus that can disappear residents into detention can also flag and pre-label people as “agitators” or “threats” well before anyone arrives on their block, with 655+ protesters, journalists, and legal observers added to surveillance lists.
In other words: the named operation may have been declared over, but the system that produced it is only getting stronger.

VI. The Authoritarian Lesson

Seen in this light, Operation Metro Surge looks less like a one-off crisis and more like a test.From the administration’s perspective, the test was straightforward:
  • Could they flood a major American city with masked federal agents exercising broad and abusive powers?
  • Could they get away with killing citizens in broad daylight caught on film, while contradicting footage that showed the unjustifiable killings by labeling the victims as domestic terrorists who had been trying to kill the agents? Could they withhold evidence, and face no meaningful criminal consequences?
  • Could they pressure a state government by tying the withdrawal of forces to unrelated demands, like access to voter rolls and welfare databases, as AG Pam Bondi did in a letter addressed to Governor Tim Walz?
  • Could they defy court orders thousands of times, disappear people into a nationwide detention archipelago in which habeas corpus does not apply, and still ride out the media and political backlash?
  • Could they then declare the operation “ended” on their own timetable, on their own terms, without having to submit to an external audit?
On each point, the answer appears to be yes. There were political and reputational costs, especially in the early days of the surge. But those costs have proved navigable. The forces are still in place in significant numbers. The national infrastructure has grown. The narrative of an “ending” has been broadly accepted in official circles.

From the perspective of democracy, this is not a test you can afford to pass.

What has emerged in the wake of Metro Surge is not a functioning representative democracy confronting and correcting an abuse. It is a political system in which both major parties have chosen optics over substance, competing Potemkin victories over a shared commitment to truth, and short-term narrative control over long-term institutional repair.

The people who lived through the surge—those who lost family members, those who were disappeared and returned, those who are still hiding—are left in a kind of double exile: first from the protection of their own state, and then from its memory.

If there is a window left for reversing that trajectory, it will not be found in official statements about “missions changing,” nor in talk show applause lines about activist victories. It will begin with something much simpler and harder: a refusal to accept announcements as endings, and a renewed insistence on seeing, counting, and naming what is actually happening on the ground—even, and especially, when the cameras have moved on.