Introduction: A Democracy in Crisis
This essay develops a framework for understanding
Trumpism as a distinct form of personalist rule with features of
kleptocracy and crony capitalism. In this model, power is concentrated
in a single leader, and all major institutions—party, executive, and
judiciary—are reshaped to serve his personal and financial interests.
While the ongoing purge and transformation of the GOP is a proximate
goal, the ultimate objective is the consolidation of Trump’s power over
the entire polity and its institutions.
This emerging system differs fundamentally from classic
oligarchy, where power is shared among a stable elite coalition, and
from generic authoritarianism, which encompasses various power
structures from military juntas to ideological regimes. Trumpist
personalism operates through transactional loyalty, where allegiance to
the leader supersedes ideological consistency or institutional
principles. The system is sustained by patronage networks that reward
compliance while systematically punishing dissent, creating a political
order where even the wealthiest and most powerful figures function as
courtiers whose status depends entirely on presidential favor.
The concept of competitive authoritarianism, as defined
by Levitsky and Way, provides useful diagnostic criteria for monitoring
this transition toward hybrid regime status. However, their
framework—designed to analyze diverse cases from Orbán’s Hungary to
Chávez’s Venezuela—lacks the specificity needed to understand Trump’s
particular mode of rule. While populist rhetoric and ideological appeals
provide legitimacy, the evidence—public humiliations, primary threats,
and defiance of judicial rulings—points to a personalist agenda driven
by loyalty and patronage, signaling a potential transition from
crisis-ridden liberal democracy to hybrid regime.
Theoretical Context: Beyond Competitive Authoritarianism
Levitsky and Way’s competitive authoritarianism framework provides criteria for monitoring democratic decline:
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Elections are real but unfair, with opposition facing obstacles like media bias or harassment.
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The executive uses state resources and legal tools to marginalize rivals.
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The judiciary and legislature are pressured or co-opted to ensure regime survival.
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Media and civil society are constrained but not fully suppressed.
The value of this model lies in its diagnostic power,
offering warning signs of a shift from liberal democracy to hybrid
systems. However, competitive authoritarianism encompasses everything
from military governments to ideological movements to personalist
regimes, making it too broad to capture the specific dynamics of Trump’s
rule.
Trumpist personalism represents a distinct variant
characterized by three key features that differentiate it from other
authoritarian forms:
Transactional Loyalty Over Ideology
Unlike ideological regimes that demand adherence to
specific beliefs, or military governments that operate through
institutional hierarchy, Trump’s system prioritizes personal loyalty
above all else. Figures like Thomas Massie, who align ideologically with
Trump’s stated positions, face punishment for opposing specific
legislation, while ideological opponents who demonstrate personal
deference can secure favor.
Kleptocratic Integration
The system systematically blurs the line between public
office and private enrichment, not merely through corruption but as an
organizing principle. Government contracts, regulatory decisions, and
policy positions become tools for rewarding loyalty and punishing
dissent, creating a patronage network that extends far beyond
traditional political appointments.
Elite Subordination Through Dependency
Rather than creating stable power-sharing arrangements
with wealthy allies, the system deliberately maintains elite dependency
on presidential favor. Even figures with substantial independent
resources—like Elon Musk with his technological assets—discover that
their influence remains contingent and revocable, preventing the
emergence of autonomous power centers that might constrain presidential
authority.
This framework explains phenomena that generic
competitive authoritarianism cannot predict: why tech elites became
subordinated courtiers rather than power-sharing oligarchs, why
ideologically aligned figures face punishment for tactical dissent, and
why the system’s apparent instability may actually serve its
consolidation by preventing elite coalition-building.
Case Studies: Intra-Party Purges and the Logic of Personalist Rule
The GOP as the Primary Target—But Not the Ultimate One
The systematic disciplining of the GOP demonstrates
personalist logic in action. Dissent within the party triggers isolation
and career-ending consequences, serving as a warning to all
institutional actors that loyalty to Trump supersedes traditional
political considerations.
The events surrounding the passage of the “One Big
Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) in July 2025 offer the clearest evidence yet of
Trump’s dominance over his party. Despite widespread misgivings about
the bill’s content and its popularity, nearly every Republican in
Congress ultimately supported it, setting aside previous pledges and
policy positions. As reported by The Atlantic, lawmakers from both
moderate and conservative wings abandoned their stated red lines—on
issues like Medicaid cuts and deficit spending—rather than risk a
confrontation with the president. Even those who had publicly criticized
the bill or voiced concerns about its impact on their constituents
ultimately acquiesced to Trump’s demands, highlighting the overwhelming
pressure to conform to his agenda.
Senator Lisa Murkowski’s experience is particularly
illustrative. In public remarks, she acknowledged that “we are all
afraid” of political retaliation from Trump, describing the anxiety and
real threat that keeps even senior Republicans from speaking out. She
ultimately voted for the bill after negotiating carve-outs for Alaska,
despite calling it “a bad bill” and recognizing its harms. Murkowski’s
admission, as reported by Reuters, underscores the climate of fear and
the personal risks faced by those who consider opposing Trump’s wishes.
Other senators who initially objected to the bill’s
provisions, such as Josh Hawley and Ron Johnson, also reversed course
under pressure, with Hawley conceding he would try to mitigate the very
changes he had just voted for. The Atlantic’s reporting emphasizes that
the cost of dissent is so high that even lawmakers with strong
ideological or constituency-based objections ultimately comply, further
cementing Trump’s control over the party.
Case Studies in Punishment and Silence:
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Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) was uninvited
from the White House picnic after opposing Trump’s signature bill, a
move he called “petty vindictiveness.” No GOP figures defended him,
signaling a chilling effect within the party.
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Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) voted
against the “big, beautiful bill,” was attacked as a “talker and
complainer, NOT A DOER!” and threatened with primaries, leading to his
retirement. No colleagues spoke out.
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Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY)
criticized the bill for adding $20 trillion in debt, earning Trump’s
ridicule as “Rand Paul Junior” and a prediction of electoral defeat. GOP
silence reinforced the message: dissent invites isolation.
The absence of intra-party solidarity and the prevalence
of fear and transactional bargaining ensure that loyalty to Trump
supersedes ideological ties, transforming the GOP into a vehicle for his
authority—a hallmark of personalist rule. This also protects Trump’s
patronage network, rewarding loyalists with positions or contracts,
aligning with crony capitalist features. The party purge is thus a
necessary step toward the broader goal: the subordination of all
institutional power to Trump.
The Sycophantic Spectacle: Ritualizing Party Subordination
The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) was
marked not only by the near-total compliance of Republican lawmakers,
but by an extraordinary display of orchestrated loyalty. As soon as the
House approved the bill, Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republican caucus
staged a celebration that was anything but spontaneous. Trump’s rally
anthem “YMCA” blared through the chamber, and lawmakers lined up to pose
with double thumbs-up—Trump’s signature gesture—while some performed
his trademark fist-pump dance. (Democracy Now!)
This was not the exuberance of a party unified by shared
conviction. Behind the music and smiles, many lawmakers were privately
uneasy or outright opposed to the bill’s substance, having voted “yes”
only after securing carve-outs or under the threat of presidential
retaliation. The outward display of unity was, in reality, a performance
compelled by fear and the logic of personalist discipline.
The moment functioned as a public ritual: a sycophantic
Congress signaling to the country and to Trump himself that dissent had
been purged and only loyalty remained. It was the legislative equivalent
of a “Trump salute,” a symbolic act that announced—without a word being
spoken—that the GOP’s transformation from a coalition of interests to a
vehicle for one man’s authority was complete. The event did not simply
celebrate a policy win; it made unmistakable that the party’s identity
is now defined by personal allegiance to Trump, not by shared principles
or policy consensus.
This spectacle, staged at the very moment of new
national legislation passing, was the culmination of weeks of
intra-party discipline: dissenters like Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, Thomas
Massie, and Lisa Murkowski had been publicly humiliated, threatened, or
driven to retirement. The House celebration was not a celebration of
legislative achievement, but a ritualized affirmation of Trump’s
personal dominance—a warning to any who might consider defiance in the
future.
Executive Branch: Loyalism, Overreach, and the Expansion of Personal Power
Trump’s executive actions demonstrate how personalist
systems extend control beyond party politics to the machinery of
government itself.
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DOGE and Project 2025: The Department
of Government Efficiency (DOGE), initially led by Elon Musk, shifted to
Russ Vought’s control, focusing on mass layoffs and embedding loyalists
to consolidate executive power. Project 2025’s playbook prioritizes
loyalty, sidelining Congress and traditional checks.
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The Musk Episode: Musk, after
criticizing the “big, beautiful bill” as a “debt bomb,” faced threats of
contract losses and deportation, forcing a public apology. This
demonstrates that even populist figures with substantial independent
resources are subordinate to Trump’s will, ensuring a loyal patronage
network while preventing autonomous power centers.
Trump vs. Musk: The Limits of Elite Challenge:
In this latest round of the Musk-Trump feud, the dynamic
has shifted notably from the earlier, more personal exchanges of June.
Unlike the first episode—when Musk openly called for Trump’s
impeachment, made provocative remarks about the Epstein files, and
ultimately deleted his posts and apologized—Musk this time has
deliberately avoided ad hominem attacks. Instead, he has focused his
public commentary on substantive policy critiques, particularly the
fiscal impact of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which he decried for
adding trillions to the national debt. When confronted with Trump’s
barrage of personal insults on Truth Social—including calling Musk a
“TRAIN WRECK,” “off the rails,” and a source of “DISRUPTION &
CHAOS”—Musk’s sharpest retort was a rhetorical, almost dismissive, “What
is Truth Social?” This quip, widely noted in the press as a subtle
insult, stands in stark contrast to his earlier, more direct
provocations.
Trump, for his part, escalated the personalist
discipline: he publicly threatened Musk with deportation, suggested
reviewing government contracts with SpaceX, and ridiculed Musk’s
third-party ambitions as “ridiculous,” contrasting them with his own GOP
as a “smooth running machine” that had just passed historic
legislation—the very bill Musk opposed. Notably, Musk’s restraint (“It
is tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I will refrain for
now.”) was not an act of politeness but a tactical decision, likely
reflecting the risks of further reputational damage and the asymmetry of
power in their relationship. Musk’s only pointed response this time was
the Truth Social remark; otherwise, he remained focused on policy, even
as Trump intensified his public criticism.
In sum, this phase of the feud highlights the logic of
personalist rule: Trump’s dominance is asserted through public
humiliation and threats, while even the world’s most prominent business
figures are compelled to adopt a defensive, policy-focused posture.
Musk’s reputation suffers with each exchange, and his unwillingness to
escalate personally underscores the risks faced by elites who challenge a
personalist leader. There is no evidence that Musk said anything more
critical of Trump than the “What is Truth Social?” remark, which, while
pointed, falls far short of the earlier round’s provocations. This
evolution in tone and tactics is itself telling evidence of the regime’s
capacity to discipline even its most prominent former insiders.
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Executive Overreach and Kleptocracy:
The administration’s rescission of $11 billion in grants was described
as “targeted retaliation” against critical universities. Deportations to
South Sudan defied court injunctions, termed “unprecedented defiance.”
Awarding contracts to loyalist firms and firing inspectors general
without notice further illustrate a “unitary executive on steroids,”
using state power for personal and political gain.
These actions demonstrate the core logic of personalist
rule: all levers of state power are ultimately subject to Trump’s
personal authority, with loyalty serving as the organizing principle for
their deployment.
The Judiciary: From Federalist Society to MAGA Loyalists
The judiciary faces systematic pressure to align with
Trump’s agenda, shifting from principled conservatism to personal
loyalty. This transformation illustrates how personalist systems
penetrate even traditionally independent institutions.
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Break with the Federalist Society:
Trump called Leonard Leo a “sleazebag” and “America hater,” expressing
“great disappointment” with the Federalist Society after their judges
ruled against him. This rejection of institutional conservatism enabled
A3P’s rise, which prioritizes loyalty, as seen in nominations like Emil
Bove.
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Rise of the Article III Project (A3P):
A3P, led by Mike Davis, boasts a “take-no-prisoners” approach and claims
influence over recent judicial nominations, such as Emil Bove to the
Third Circuit, reflecting a shift to loyalist judges.
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Attacks on Judicial Independence: Trump
and A3P label GOP-appointed judges “rogue” for unfavorable rulings,
proposing funding cuts or impeachment. Judge Trevor McFadden called
limits on Associated Press access a “brazen” First Amendment violation,
citing “retaliation.” On July 2, a US district judge, Randolph Moss,
ruled that Trump's proclamation declaring an "invasion" at the border
cannot be used to justify the unilateral restrictions he sought to
impose on asylum seekers. Immediately after the ruling, a White House
spokesperson called the ruling "an attack on our Constitution, the laws
Congress enacted, and our national sovereignty," while a DHS spokeswoman
called Judge Moss "a rogue district judge...[who is] threatening the
safety and security of Americans." A recent Supreme Court ruling (June
27, 2025) ending universal injunctions along ideological lines, and
decided on the shadow docket, further enables Trump's defiance of
judicial checks, facilitating unchecked deportations.
These judicial pressures serve both political and
kleptocratic functions—protecting Trump’s interests while signaling that
even the most independent branch must ultimately defer to presidential
authority in the personalist system.
Synthesis: Hybridization in Progress—Toward Total Personalist Control
Trump’s actions align with personalist logic,
systematically hollowing out democratic forms through loyalty tests,
purges, and power centralization. The transformation of the GOP into a
loyal vehicle, driven by purges of figures like Paul, Tillis, and
Massie, represents a proximate goal. However, the ultimate aim is the
subordination of all institutions—Congress, executive agencies, the
judiciary, and civil society—to Trump’s personal will.
The personalist framework explains several phenomena that competitive authoritarianism alone cannot predict:
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Why Ideology Yields to Loyalty: The
punishment of ideologically aligned figures like Massie and populist
icons like Musk demonstrates that personal fealty trumps programmatic
agreement.
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The Kleptocratic Infrastructure:
Defunding universities and firing inspectors general removes oversight
mechanisms, enabling patronage networks that sustain Trump’s power.
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Elite Subordination Mechanisms: The
shift from Federalist Society influence to A3P control, and from Musk’s
DOGE leadership to Vought’s Project 2025 implementation, ensures that
all institutional power centers serve Trump’s interests rather than
maintaining autonomous authority.
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Digital Personalism: Trump’s control
operates through Truth Social and social media manipulation, creating a
unique hybrid of traditional personalist tactics with contemporary
information warfare. Unlike state-controlled media in other regimes,
Truth Social’s user-driven model creates a decentralized echo chamber
amplifying Trump’s attacks, with standards set primarily by his will,
bypassing even X’s algorithmic constraints.
The regime’s reliance on Trump’s charisma and personal
authority makes it potentially brittle—resistance from judges like
McFadden and occasional GOP negotiations with Democrats suggest
institutional limits. However, the systematic nature of the
transformation indicates a coherent strategy for consolidating
personalist rule rather than mere political opportunism. The OBBB
episode demonstrates that the regime’s unity is maintained not by shared
principles or policy consensus, but by the personal authority of the
leader and the threat of retribution. As Murkowski put it, “we are all
afraid.” This dynamic is not only a sign of personalist rule, but also a
warning of its brittleness: should Trump’s grip weaken, the coalition
could fracture rapidly.
Conclusion: Not a Fait Accompli—A System to Be Monitored
Trump’s personalist capture of the GOP and federal
government, infused with kleptocracy and crony capitalism, threatens the
separation of powers, rule of law, and democratic stability. The GOP
purge represents a necessary step toward the broader, ultimate goal: the
consolidation of Trump’s power over the entire polity and its
institutions.
This analysis demonstrates that competitive
authoritarianism, while useful for monitoring democratic decline,
requires supplementation with more specific theoretical frameworks to
understand particular cases. Trumpist personalism—characterized by
transactional loyalty, kleptocratic integration, and elite
subordination—represents a distinct form of authoritarian governance
adapted to contemporary American conditions.
The process remains ongoing, contested, and volatile,
requiring rigorous scrutiny of intra-party dynamics, judicial
independence, and institutional integrity to assess the trajectory
toward full hybrid regime status. Unlike entrenched oligarchies,
personalist systems often prove more vulnerable to reversal after the
leader’s exit, as recent experiences in Brazil and Poland suggest.
However, the window for democratic recovery narrows as institutional
capture proceeds, making vigilant analysis of these trends essential for
understanding and potentially countering authoritarian consolidation.
Endnotes
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Thorp V, Frank, et al. “Sen. Rand Paul Says He Was
‘Uninvited’ to White House Picnic Over Breaks with Trump.” NBC News,
June 12, 2025.
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Walsh, Deirdre. “Republican Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year After Trump Attacks.” NPR, June 29, 2025.
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Colton, Emma. “Trump Says Massie Is ‘Gonna Be History’
as ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Jumps Final Hurdles to Passage.” Fox News, July
1, 2025.
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Trump, Donald J. Truth Social post, 2025.
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French, David. “Why Trump Is Mad at the ‘Sleazebag’ Leonard Leo.” New York Times, June 1, 2025.
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Article III Project. “Endorsements.” A3P Website, accessed 2025.
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Hurly, Lawrence. “Trump Aims to Build a MAGA Judiciary, Breaking with Traditional Conservatives.” NBC News, June 5, 2025.
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Blake, Aaron. “It’s Not Just ‘Leftist’ Judges. GOP Appointees Have Many Sharp Words for Trump.” Washington Post, April 24, 2025.
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Hulse, Carl. “Conservative Group Wants to Bring ‘Brass Knuckles’ Approach to Judicial Fray.” New York Times, May 18, 2019.
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“Trump Administration Rescinds $11 Billion in University Research Grants.” Inside Higher Ed, May 2, 2025.
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“Deportations Proceed Despite Court Injunctions, Raising Concerns.” Reuters, June 24, 2025.
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“Trump’s Executive Actions Spark Legal Challenges.” Axios, March 21, 2025.
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“Birthright Citizenship Order Faces Constitutional Hurdles.” America Magazine, January 30, 2025.
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“Inspectors General Firings Raise Oversight Concerns.” NPR, June 10, 2025.
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Russell Berman, “No One Loves the Bill (Almost) Every Republican Voted for,” The Atlantic, July 3, 2025.
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“Republican US Senator Murkowski on threat of Trump retaliation: 'We are all afraid',” Reuters, April 18, 2025.
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“Judge Blocks ‘Sweeping Asylum Crackdown’ After Trump Declared ‘Invasion’ at Southern Border.” Politico, July 2, 2025.
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“Supreme Court Limits Judges’ Ability to Issue Nationwide Injunctions, a Win for Trump.” The New York Times, June 27, 2025.
"Trump and Musk feud escalates after Musk floats creating new political party"- ABC News, July 7, 2025
"Most Massive Transfer of Wealth Upward in American History:" John Nichols on Trump's Budget Law, Democracy Now!, July 7, 2025 (Broadcast Transcript here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_uSFJ54ti0 )
