1) Re: insertion about negative direction of both official inter and intrastate (civil) wars involving the "great powers" (esp. in West , esp US) and extra-judicial forms of cruelty (secret renditions, drone attacks with ~90% civilian "collateral" death, militarization of police and rates of reported brutality, some well recorded-- not just blacks and Latinos, but poor whites as well, see WaPo article I cited some time ago), poverty levels rising, starvation rates even in most wealthy nations like US esp. among children). All to contrast with self-understanding, certainly among elites, but more or less among pop. at large, that we're "advanced" and more "humane" than those from past centuries. Some info. on this:
The current evidence suggests that the early twenty‑first century is not an era of growing peace, but one of record levels of armed conflict, intense Western interventionism, and massive civilian harm, even where great powers avoid direct war with one another. Large‑scale datasets, independent academic projects, and widely accessible indices all show a sharp deterioration in global peacefulness and a heavy human toll linked to post‑Cold War and post‑9/11 wars.
Rising conflicts and Western interventions
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and allied military interventions have increased in both frequency and geographic spread, contradicting the idea that a unipolar order brought stability. A study summarized by the Quincy Institute’s Responsible Statecraft, using the Military Intervention Project dataset, finds that the United States has undertaken roughly 392 military interventions since 1776 and that more than a quarter of these occurred after the Cold War, making the post‑9/11 period one of the most militarily aggressive in U.S. history.
Global conflict data tell a similar story. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports that the number of state‑based armed conflicts reached a record 59 in 2023 and then climbed to 61 in 2024, the highest level since systematic data collection began in 1946. UCDP analysts also note that 2024 was the fourth most violent year since the 1994 Rwandan genocide, and that explicitly targeted violence against civilians killed about 13,900 people in that year alone, a 31 percent increase over 2023.
Human costs of the post‑9/11 wars
Research from Brown University’s “Costs of War” project provides one of the clearest, publicly accessible summaries of the human impact of U.S.‑led post‑9/11 wars. According to the project’s 2023–2025 findings, at least 940,000 people have been killed directly by war violence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, and related theaters, including hundreds of thousands of civilians. When indirect deaths from war‑driven disease, malnutrition, and collapsed infrastructure are included, total fatalities are estimated at roughly 4.5–4.7 million people.
The same research estimates that these wars have displaced at least 38 million people, and possibly as many as 49–60 million, making this the largest episode of forced displacement since World War II aside from the world wars themselves. Mainstream outlets such as the Washington Post and Euronews have summarized these Brown findings, providing easy entry points for non‑specialist readers.
“Great Fragmentation” and the end of the “Long Peace”
The Global Peace Index (GPI), produced annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace and freely available online, shows a long, steady decline in global peacefulness since the mid‑2000s. The 2025 GPI report describes a process of “Great Fragmentation,” noting that many key indicators that precede major wars—such as militarization, refugee flows, and external conflict involvement—are now at their worst levels since World War II.
These findings directly challenge the popular narrative, associated above all with Steven Pinker’s 2011 book The Better Angels of Our Nature, that humanity is living through a historically unprecedented “Long Peace” and “New Peace.” Pinker’s argument emphasizes long‑term declines in violence rates, especially per‑capita risks of violent death, but critics point out that his framework can treat massive modern wars and interventions as compatible with “progress” so long as population growth outpaces deaths. The post‑2014 deterioration captured by UCDP and the GPI—including record numbers of armed conflicts, multi‑decade highs in battle deaths, and severe targeting of civilians—has made Pinker’s optimistic extrapolation look less like a law of history and more like a temporary, fragile plateau enforced by nuclear deterrence and shifting patterns of proxy warfare.
Torture, renditions, and civilian targeting
The post‑9/11 era has also seen the normalization of practices—such as torture, secret detention, and drone warfare—that underscore how far contemporary powers still are from the self‑image of “humane” and law‑bound security states. The U.S. Senate’s report on the CIA detention and interrogation program, together with investigations by groups like Open Society Justice Initiative, document at least 39 individuals tortured under “enhanced interrogation” methods and the participation of at least 54 countries in the CIA’s rendition and black‑site network.
In the Israeli–Palestinian context, the UN Committee Against Torture’s 2025 session on Israel, as well as reports by Palestinian and international human rights organizations, describe widespread and systemic torture and ill‑treatment of Palestinian detainees, including during the Gaza war after October 2023. These accounts detail severe beatings, stress positions, deprivation, dog attacks, and sexual violence, and note a rise in deaths in custody, reinforcing the picture of an international order in which “Western” or Western‑aligned states continue to employ extreme violence behind a liberal façade.
Why Pinker’s story no longer fits the evidence
Taken together, these strands of evidence indicate that the world is not moving steadily toward peace under the guidance of “better angels,” but is instead entering a period of chronic, fragmented, and often undeclared warfare in which powerful states externalize risks and costs onto more vulnerable societies. While it is true that rich countries have largely avoided direct great‑power wars on their own soil since 1945, the record‑high number of armed conflicts, the millions killed directly and indirectly in U.S.‑led wars, and the tens of millions displaced by these interventions undermine the comforting myth that “Western civilization” has transcended its violent past.
By relying heavily on per‑capita statistics and long time‑horizons, Pinker’s framework obscures the scale and distribution of present‑day suffering, especially in regions most affected by Western military action and proxy wars. Publicly accessible resources—UCDP’s conflict tallies, Brown University’s Costs of War reports, and the Global Peace Index—offer a starkly different picture: a world in which organized violence is at or near post‑1945 highs and in which Western‑led and Western‑backed interventions are central drivers of that trend
- Reduced Direct Conflict (1945–1990): Following WWII, major powers avoided direct conventional warfare due to nuclear deterrence and the establishment of alliances like NATO. While proxy wars occurred, the rate of direct Western military intervention was lower compared to the modern era.
- Rise in Post-Cold War Interventions: U.S. and Western military interventions increased significantly after 1991. One study indicates that over 25% of all U.S. military interventions since 1776 occurred in the post-Cold War period. The average rate of U.S. interventions rose from 8.3 per year during the Cold War to approximately 7 per year in the post-Cold War era, representing a 60% increase in frequency when adjusted for duration.
- Record Highs in the 2020s: By 2024 and 2025, the number of active state-based armed conflicts reached 61, the highest recorded since the end of World War II.
- Unipolarity and Interventionism: The absence of a Soviet counterweight in the 1990s allowed Western powers to intervene more frequently in civil wars and humanitarian crises (e.g., Bosnia, Kosovo).
- Internationalization of Internal Conflicts: Modern wars are increasingly "internationalized," with 78 countries involved in conflicts beyond their borders in 2024.
- New Strategic Aims: Post-Cold War conflicts shifted toward fighting the War on Terror, removing regimes, and addressing internal stability in fragmented states.
- Battle Deaths: Despite the higher number of conflicts, total battle deaths remained lower than mid-20th century peaks until a recent spike. However, deaths hit a 30-year high in 2022 due to major wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
- Global Fragmentation:
Analysts describe current trends as a "Great Fragmentation," with
global peacefulness reaching its lowest levels in decades by 2025.
- Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, theMiddle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen the highest concentration of direct Western military interventions, particularly in terms of large-scale combat and regime changes .
- However, when including all types of military actions (such as troop deployments, threats of force, and special operations), Latin America historically remains the region with the highest total number of U.S. interventions Regional Breakdown of Western Interventions (1991–2025)
- Middle East and North Africa (MENA): This region became the primary focus of direct combat operations after 1991.
- Major Operations: Persian Gulf War (1991), Iraq War (2003–2011), Libya intervention (2011), and ongoing counter-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria.
- Recent Trends: Frequent use of drone strikes and special forces in Yemen and Somalia as part of the War on Terror.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Interventions here have shifted from humanitarian missions to counter-terrorism.
- Key Interventions: Somalia (1992–1994), and more recent French and U.S. "advise and assist" missions in the Sahel region (Niger, Mali).
- Europe (Balkans and Eastern Europe): The collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s brought significant Western military involvement to the continent.
- Key Interventions: NATO bombing in Bosnia (1995) and the Kosovo War (1999).
- 2020s Shift: While not a direct intervention, the massive scale of Western military aid and intelligence support during the 2022–2025 Russia-Ukraine War represents a peak in internationalized conflict involvement.
- Asia: Dominated by the 20-year war in Afghanistan (2001–2021), which involved nearly all NATO members and several other Western allies.
- Latin America and Caribbean: While direct "wars" have decreased, this region still experiences frequent "low-intensity" interventions, such as those in Haiti (1994, 2004) and counter-narcotics operations across Central and South America. (some links: Statistica: and Responsible Statecraft = both written before Gaza and during the first year of Ukraine ) Responsible Staecraft Report from 8/22 contains many other helpful links, but now we would have to factor in additionals with Middle East and Gaza on fire. Further, Latin America , which was already noted then as most frequently hit by "low intensity" interventions , now becoming more overt as war with Venezuela looks like a distinct possibility ini near future as we have MURDERED (under faux "War Powers" without congress) 100 people on the open sea in Caribbean and Pacific Ocean off Venezuala and Colombia respectively. In 2022 RS reports over 400 US interventioins in the 30 yrs. post cold war. RS author Nick Turse has covered the US role in Africa which he claims led to enormous rises in both terrorism and war there, as well as covert ops in which US was involved in regime change: all his articles for Responsible Statecraft here: Summary of Intensity vs. Frequency
Region Frequency of Intervention Intensity/Scale of Combat Middle East High Very High (Major Wars) Latin America Highest (Historical) Moderate (Civil/Covert) Africa Growing Moderate (Counter-terror) Europe (Ukraine)
1. Casualties (Deaths and Injuries)
- Reduced Direct Conflict (1945–1990): Following WWII, major powers avoided direct conventional warfare due to nuclear deterrence and the establishment of alliances like NATO. While proxy wars occurred, the rate of direct Western military intervention was lower compared to the modern era.
- Rise in Post-Cold War Interventions: U.S. and Western military interventions increased significantly after 1991. One study indicates that over 25% of all U.S. military interventions since 1776 occurred in the post-Cold War period. The average rate of U.S. interventions rose from 8.3 per year during the Cold War to approximately 7 per year in the post-Cold War era, representing a 60% increase in frequency when adjusted for duration.
- Record Highs in the 2020s: By 2024 and 2025, the number of active state-based armed conflicts reached 61, the highest recorded since the end of World War II.
- Unipolarity and Interventionism: The absence of a Soviet counterweight in the 1990s allowed Western powers to intervene more frequently in civil wars and humanitarian crises (e.g., Bosnia, Kosovo).
- Internationalization of Internal Conflicts: Modern wars are increasingly "internationalized," with 78 countries involved in conflicts beyond their borders in 2024.
- New Strategic Aims: Post-Cold War conflicts shifted toward fighting the War on Terror, removing regimes, and addressing internal stability in fragmented states.
- Battle Deaths: Despite the higher number of conflicts, total battle deaths remained lower than mid-20th century peaks until a recent spike. However, deaths hit a 30-year high in 2022 due to major wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
- Global Fragmentation: Analysts describe current trends as a "Great Fragmentation," with global peacefulness reaching its lowest levels in decades by 2025.
- Middle East and North Africa (MENA): This region became the primary focus of direct combat operations after 1991.
- Major Operations: Persian Gulf War (1991), Iraq War (2003–2011), Libya intervention (2011), and ongoing counter-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria.
- Recent Trends: Frequent use of drone strikes and special forces in Yemen and Somalia as part of the War on Terror.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Interventions here have shifted from humanitarian missions to counter-terrorism.
- Key Interventions: Somalia (1992–1994), and more recent French and U.S. "advise and assist" missions in the Sahel region (Niger, Mali).
- Europe (Balkans and Eastern Europe): The collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s brought significant Western military involvement to the continent.
- Key Interventions: NATO bombing in Bosnia (1995) and the Kosovo War (1999).
- 2020s Shift: While not a direct intervention, the massive scale of Western military aid and intelligence support during the 2022–2025 Russia-Ukraine War represents a peak in internationalized conflict involvement.
- Asia: Dominated by the 20-year war in Afghanistan (2001–2021), which involved nearly all NATO members and several other Western allies.
- Latin America and Caribbean: While direct "wars" have decreased, this region still experiences frequent "low-intensity" interventions, such as those in Haiti (1994, 2004) and counter-narcotics operations across Central and South America.
| Region |
|---|
| Frequency of Intervention | Intensity/Scale of Combat | |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East | High | Very High (Major Wars) |
| Latin America | Highest (Historical) | Moderate (Civil/Covert) |
| Africa | Growing | Moderate (Counter-terror) |
| Europe | Low (before Ukraine) | High (Strategic/Interstate) |
- Economic Interdependence: Because oil is a fungible global commodity, a supply disruption in the Persian Gulf causes worldwide price spikes that damage Western economies, regardless of where they buy their fuel.
- Denial of Access: Western strategy often focuses on preventing competitors (historically the USSR, and increasingly China in 2025) from controlling these resources or global shipping lanes like the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz.
- Defense of Israel: Ensuring Israel's military superiority and security has been a consistent pillar of Western policy, driven by deep historical, cultural, and strategic ties.
- Counter-Proliferation: The region’s volatility, combined with the pursuit of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) by states like Iraq (historically) and Iran, has been a primary justification for "preemptive" military action.
- Power Vacuums: The fragmentation of states after the Cold War allowed groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS to seize territory, forcing Western powers into long-term "stabilization" missions to prevent these groups from launching global attacks.
- Burden Sharing: New 2025 policies emphasize that regional partners (like Israel and the Gulf states) must take a leading role in their own security, allowing the West to "retrench" or reduce its permanent footprint.
- Direct Deaths: Over 940,000 people have been killed by direct war violence, including at least 432,000 civilians.
- Indirect Deaths: An estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million people have died from the "reverberating effects" of these wars, such as the destruction of healthcare, spread of disease, and malnutrition.
- Injuries: The number of people wounded or traumatized extends into the tens of millions. For instance, in Gaza alone—where the U.S. has provided significant military aid and regional support—more than 169,430 injuries were reported by October 2025.
- Historical Scale: This level of displacement exceeds that of any other conflict in the 20th or 21st century, with the exception of World War II.
- Recent Surges (2024–2025):
- Middle East: In the conflicts involving Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank (supported by $31–$33 billion in U.S. military spending since late 2023), over 5.27 million people were newly displaced by September 2025.
- Syria: Approximately 7.4 million people remain internally displaced in Syria as of 2025, following decades of civil war and international intervention.
- Iraq: More than 1.1 million people remain displaced within Iraq as of late 2025.
| Category |
|---|
| Estimated Total | |
|---|---|
| Direct Violent Deaths | 940,000+ |
| Total Deaths (Direct + Indirect) | 4.5 – 4.7 Million |
| Total Displaced Persons | 38 – 59 Million |
| Injuries & Trauma | Tens of Millions |
- Scale of Abuse: At least 39 individuals were officially documented as being tortured by the CIA, while thousands more were subjected to "cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment" across a network of global "black sites" and military prisons like Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay.
- Death in Custody: Between 2002 and 2005, at least 17 detainees died from abuse while in the custody of U.S. or U.K. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.
- Western Complicity: At least 54 governments participated in the U.S. rendition program, which involved transporting suspects to countries where they faced high risks of torture.
- Current Trends (2025): While large-scale state-sanctioned programs have officially ended, human rights groups in 2025 continue to report on abusive detention conditions in new U.S. migration facilities, citing "enforced disappearances" and inhumane treatment.
- Systemic Nature: In late 2025, the UN Committee Against Torture described a "de facto state policy of organized and widespread torture" against Palestinian detainees.
- Specific Allegations: Reports from 2024 and 2025 document severe beatings, attacks by dogs, waterboarding, electrocution, and systematic sexual violence against both men and women.
- Child Detainees: Estimates indicate that more than 67% of Palestinian children detained in the West Bank reported physical abuse during arrest or interrogation.
- Fatalities: By late 2025, human rights organizations highlighted at least 19 cases of severe abuse, including the deaths of multiple Palestinians held in Israeli custody.
| Metric |
|---|
| U.S. (Post-9/11 Peak) | Israel (2024–2025) | |
|---|---|---|
| Documented Cases | Hundreds (interrogations) | Thousands (detentions/arrests) |
| Death Toll in Custody | 17+ (Iraq/Afghanistan) | 6-19+ (Reported cases) |
| Methods Cited | Waterboarding, stress positions, sleep deprivation | Severe beatings, sexual violence, dog attacks, electrocution |
- Historic Highs: In 2024 and 2025, the number of active state-based armed conflicts reached 61, the highest recorded since data collection began in 1946.
- Doubling of Conflict: The level of conflict worldwide has doubled over the past five years (2020–2025).
- 30-Year Highs: 2022 and 2023 saw the highest levels of battle-related deaths in three decades, largely due to the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia.
- Deadliest Year: 2024 was recorded as the fourth most violent year since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
- Total Fatalities: Between 2020 and late 2024, fatalities reached nearly 10.5 million, compared to approximately 953,000 for the entire decade of 2010–2019.
- Targeted Violence: In 2024 and 2025, targeted violence against civilians rose significantly, even as some frontline battle deaths stabilized.
- Demographic Shifts: In 2023, the proportion of women killed in conflicts doubled (from 2 in 10 to 4 in 10) compared to previous years.
- The "Per Capita" Defense: Pinker argues that absolute numbers are less relevant than the probability of an individual dying from violence. Critics respond that if population grows exponentially, war deaths could increase dramatically in absolute terms while still "declining" per capita—a metric that masks the actual scale of modern carnage.
- Nuclear Deterrence: Many historians argue the "Long Peace" was not driven by "better angels" (reason/empathy) but by nuclear deterrence, which Pinker largely downplayed.
- Internationalization: Modern conflicts are increasingly "internationalized," involving more outside powers (like Western interventions) than the civil wars Pinker analyzed in the early 2010s.
| Pinker's Claim (2011) |
|---|
| Empirical Reality (2025) | |
|---|---|
| Violence is on a steady downward trend. | Conflict frequency is at a post-WWII high (61 active wars). |
| Major interstate wars are becoming obsolete. | The Russia-Ukraine war is the deadliest interstate conflict in decades. |
| Civilians are safer in the modern era. | Civilian casualties surged 72% in 2023 alone. |
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